Thursday, January 17, 2013

Quote of the Day: The Virtues of Stock Market Speculation

But the speculator’s actions have conferred definite services to the community. He has smoothed out the jumps in Acme’s share price. By buying the undervalued stock, he has put upward pressure on the price. (Likewise, if he short sells an overvalued stock, he puts downward pressure on the price.) Rather than Acme’s stock jumping from $10 to $20 when war breaks out, it jumps only from $13 to $20, because (in our example) the speculator’s heavy buying had already closed 30% of the gap.

By reducing stock price volatility, speculators take some of the risk out of holding stocks. For example, it’s not necessarily true that the person who sold early to the speculator at $11 “lost” $9 to the wily profiteer. It’s entirely possible that the person needed to sell his holdings of Acme because he had lost his job or because his kid’s tuition went up again. Thus, the speculator has actually made this person — who had planned to sell even if Acme remained at $10 — richer.

More generally, by anticipating future changes in the “fundamentals” and translating them into current stock prices, speculators reward even long-term investors, the kind whom most people praise (as opposed to the short-term, quick-buck speculators). For example, if an institutional investor thinks she has found a solid company that will pay high dividends and will be around for at least 20 years, it is speculators who will help keep the day-to-day stock price from straying too far out of line with these long-term facts. If a financial panic sets in and shareholders are dumping stocks across the board, it is speculators who will staunch the bleeding and swoop in to pick up “deals” at fire-sale prices.

This shows that speculators provide liquidity to the stock market and make it more lucrative for other, long-term investors to do their homework and put some of their savings into corporations they believe have a solid future. A major risk of such an investment is illiquidity — that the investor may have to sell under duress and accept a much lower price than she could get if she only had more time — but speculators mitigate this risk. If the price gets well below “what the stock is really worth,” then that’s exactly when a speculator has an incentive to swoop in and buy.

[italics original]
 
This is from Austrian economics Professor Robert Murphy at the Laissez Faire Books.

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